Uttar Pradesh Election Analysis 2017

POST POLL 2017

5 DOTS – CHINTAMANI
BJP: 243 (+/- 12)
BSP: 101 (+/- 5)
SP: 53 (+/- 3)
Others: 5
News 24 Chanakya
BJP: 285
SP-Congress:88
BSP:27
Others:3
India Today-Axis My India
BJP: 251-279
SP-Congress: 88-112
BSP: 28-42
Others: 6-16
TIMES NOW VMR
BJP:190-210
SP-Cong:110-130
BSP: 57-74
Others:19
India TV-C Voter
BJP: 155-167
SP-Congress: 135-147
BSP: 81-93
Others: 8 – 20

Election Phases in the State

  • Phase 1
  • Phase 2
  • Phase 3
  • Phase 4
  • Phase 5
  • Phase 6
  • Phase 7

TOTAL SEATS: 403

PHASE I Feb 11 73 Seats

PHASE II Feb 15 67 Seats

PHASE III Feb 19 69 Seats

PHASE IV Feb 23 53 Seats

PHASE V Feb 27 52 Seats

PHASE VI Mar 4 49 Seats

PHASE VII Mar 8 40 Seats

Current Ruling Party: SP

Opinion Poll Prediction: BJP

TOTAL SEATS: 403

2012 Vs 2017

  • 2017
  • 2012

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Prediction 2017

  • BJP+
  • BSP
  • SP-Congress
  • Others

BJP+

Seat prediction for BJP+: 243/402

BSP

Seat prediction for BSP: 101/402

SP-Congress

Seat prediction for SP-Congress: 53/402

Others

Seat prediction for Others: 5/402

Variation in Seat Projection +/- 5%
For Example:
BJP: 243 (+/- 12) ; BSP: 101 (+/- 5) ; SP: 53 (+/- 3)

Vote Share-District Wise Analysis-Seat Wise Analysis

Vote Share

BJP+
BSP
SP-Congress
VOTE SHARE
BJP+ : 36%
BSP: 27.5%
SP-Congress: 25.5%

Phase Wise Detailed Analysis

Phase 1

Total Number of Seats Contested: 73

  • BJP+
  • BSP
  • SP-Congress
  • Others
Districts
Shamli, Muzzafarnagar, Bhagpat, Meerut
GB Nagar, Ghaziabad, Hapur, Bulandshahar
Aligarh, Etha, Kasganj
Mathura, Hathras, Agra, Firozabad
BJP+: 42
BSP: 20
SP-Congress: 9
Others: 2

Phase 2

Total Number of Sets Contested: 67

  • BJP+
  • BSP
  • SP-Congress
  • Others
Districts
Saharanpur, Bijnor, Moradabad
Sambhal, Rampur, Bareilly
Amroha, Pilibhit, Kheri, Shahjahanpur, Badaun
BJP+: 33
BSP: 25
SP-Congress: 9
Others: 0

Phase 3

Total Number of Sets Contested: 69

  • BJP+
  • BSP
  • SP-Congress
  • Others
Districts
Farrukhabad, Hardoi, Kannauj
Mainpuri, Etawah, Auraiya, Kanpur Dehat
Kanpur Nagar, Unnao, Lucknow, Barabanki, Sitapur
BJP+: 37
BSP: 20
SP-Congress: 11
Others: 0

Phase 4

Total Number of Sets Contested: 53

  • BJP+
  • BSP
  • SP-Congress
  • Others
Districts
Pratapgarh, Kaushambi, Allahabad
Jalaun, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Mahoba
Hamirpur, Banda, Chitrakoot
Fatehpur, Rae Bareli
BJP+: 31
BSP: 14
SP-Congress: 6
Others: 2

Phase 5

Total Number of Sets Contested: 51

  • BJP+
  • BSP
  • SP-Congress
  • Others
Districts
Balrampur, Gonda, Faizabad, Ambedkar Nagar
Bahraich, Shrawasti, Siddharthnagar, Basti
Sant Kabir Nagar, Amethi, Sultanpur
BJP+: 35
BSP: 9
SP-Congress: 7
Others: 0

Phase 6

Total Number of Sets Contested: 49

  • BJP+
  • BSP
  • SP-Congress
  • Others
Districts
Maharajganj, Kushi Nagar, Gorakhpur
Deoria, Azamgarh, Mau, Ballia
BJP+: 37
BSP: 6
SP-Congress: 6
Others: 0

Phase 7

Total Number of Sets Contested: 40

  • BJP+
  • BSP
  • SP-Congress
  • Others
Districts
Ghazipur, Varanasi, Chandauli
Mirzapur, Bhadohi, Sonbhadra, Jaunpur
BJP+: 28
BSP: 7
SP-Congress: 5
Others: 0
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We thank Chintamani Shastri for his inputs.

Iconoclast is an insider with a ringside view of matters that matter. He is a keen observer of political and administrative intrigues as also of sports and culture. Follow Iconoclast on Twitter @IamIconoclast